@InProceedings{MarengoOrsiniNunAlvSouHar:2016:InFrAn,
author = "Marengo Orsini, Jos{\'e} Antonio and Nunes, Luci and Alves,
Lincoln Muniz and Souza, Celia Gouveia and Harari, Jos{\'e}",
affiliation = "{Centro Nacional de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais
(CEMADEN)} and {Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and
{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto
de Geologia} and {Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)}",
title = "An integrated framework to analyse vulnerability and adaptive
capacity to sea level rise in Brazil",
year = "2016",
organization = "Adaptation Futures: Practices and Solutions: International Climate
Change Adaptation Conference, 4.",
abstract = "Research question: Coastal zones face significant environmental
and socio-economic impacts that is already experiencing extreme
events. Increased frequency of intense storms events and along
with the rise in sea level, lo leads to more coastal flooding. It
is extremely important to improve and create tools that allow
stakeholders to access reliable science-based information to help
them respond to the risks of climate change and sea level raise
impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation in coastal areas.
Methodology: The location for Brazil is the city of Santos, which
is the main port of Brazil. The METROPOLE project is funded by
BELMONT Forum. The hypothesis of the project is that risk
knowledge is best understood as being co-produced by science and
by the social, political and cultural context, engaging
stakeholders and policymakers in participatory planning meetings
to analyse the social and cultural factors that impact
decision-making and regional adaptive capacity. The COastal
Adaptation to Sea level rise Tool (COAST) is software that models
flooding damage to assets from storm surge and sea level rise over
time. It can calculate one-time damages from a single event in
time; as well as cumulative damage from all possible storms over a
given time period. It then is used to calculate the benefits and
costs from various adaptation strategies to determine which
strategy is the most fiscal economically efficient over time. A
one hundred year storm surge is the height of water with a
probability of 0.01. Findings: For Southeast Zone, the damages
from storm surge increase greatly from an SLR of 18 cm to 45 cm,
and even more for the 1.00 m. with SLR between 18 and 30 cm
damages by 2050 are concentrated along the Ponta da Praia
neighbourhood. By 2100, Between 30 cm and 1 m the damaged area
extends along the coast extending the flooding and storm surges
few blocks away from the coast. By 2100, for 1 m SLR, if action is
not taken, several areas in Ponta da Praia would be lost due to
permanent inundation by SLR. For the Northeast Zone, large areas
with high tides due to SLR in the section along the main canal
with SLR of 18 to 30 cm, covering a large region and a SLR of 1 m
the area flooded can extend until the over most of the region. The
estimated damages concentrate mainly along the canal and along the
coastal line, with the damages more concentrated (building lost
due to flood) mainly in the Sao Manoel region. The cumulative
damages shows higher losses for the Southeast zone of Santos, with
cumulative losses of \$R 1.7 billion with a SLR of 1 m between
2010 and 2100, while the Northwest zone shows losses of \$R 550
million. Significance for practical solutions: We show the results
of the applications of COAST in Santos, assuming various sea level
rise levels until 2100. The partnership with the municipal
governments will facilitate the internalization of the results and
the implementation of public policies and appropriate
environmental legislation and allowing the municipals to better
manage their coastal areas.",
conference-location = "Rotterdam",
conference-year = "10-13 May",
language = "en",
urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}